From Stalemate to Settlement: Lessons for Afghanistan from Historical Insurgencies That Have Been Resolved Through Negotiations by Colin P. Clarke Christopher Paul

Author:Colin P. Clarke, Christopher Paul [Clarke, Colin P; Paul, Christopher;]
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 978-0-8330-8242-8
Publisher: RAND Corporation
Published: 2014-08-15T00:00:00+00:00

Bosnia, 1992–1995

Table 11 shows the narrative progression in Bosnia toward a settlement that ultimately favored the insurgents, the side supported by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The conflict ended with the Agreement for Peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina, also known as the Dayton Agreement or the Dayton Accords. The agreement resulted from a negotiated settlement that laid out the terms for peace in the war-torn Balkans while providing a roadmap for a return to normalcy. Dayton sought to succeed where the Vance-Owen plan had failed several years earlier, though coordinating and implementing the civilian aspects of Dayton proved extremely difficult.72

War-weariness had set in, and by 1995, the Serbs realized that continued conflict was unsustainable, especially as Western military involvement ramped up. NATO airpower had convinced Slobodan Milosevic to quit while he could, but it could do little to sort out political realities in the immediate aftermath of the war. According to Christopher Chivvis, “The ensuing peace was correspondingly tenuous, especially given that the political factions that had driven the conflict on all sides were not eliminated and would continue to pursue their war aims in peacetime.”73

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